Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.126
- 45.4%Success rate48.6%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.187EPA / rush+0.006
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.07CPOE+4.07
- 42.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 2.05Points / drive2.52
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/46 | 260 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Dwayne Washington | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 8 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 15/20 | 212 | 3 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Darren McFadden | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 5 | 70 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31