2016 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

21·42

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.126
  • 45.4%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.187EPA / rush+0.006
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.07CPOE+4.07
  • 42.7%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.52
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DALQ1 15:001076Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:57980Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 5:23480Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 2:491158Touchdown14–14
DALQ2 13:323-8Punt14–14
DETQ2 11:41853Touchdown21–14
DALQ2 7:40314Punt21–14
DETQ2 4:463-8Punt21–14
DALQ2 3:14751Touchdown21–21
DETQ2 1:0439Punt21–21
DALQ2 0:1511End of half21–21
DETQ3 15:0063Turnover21–21
DALQ3 12:0556Touchdown21–28
DETQ3 10:19611Punt21–28
DALQ3 8:08880Touchdown21–35
DETQ3 4:03846Missed field goal21–35
DALQ3 0:47763Touchdown21–42
DETQ4 12:12826Punt21–42
DALQ4 8:1031Punt21–42
DETQ4 6:11625Turnover21–42
DALQ4 4:11611Punt21–42
DETQ4 1:06316End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4626001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner12675.62
Dwayne Washington7223.10
Matthew Stafford111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron812930
Golden Tate66580
Anquan Boldin57330
Zach Zenner23250
Marvin Jones17160
Andre Roberts11140
T.J. Jones1690
Matthew Mulligan1180
Dwayne Washington1240

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott15/2021230
Dez Bryant1/11010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12806.72
Darren McFadden14493.50
Dak Prescott4358.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant45702
Terrance Williams44610
Jason Witten24331
Cole Beasley45250
Brice Butler11211
Ezekiel Elliott11120
Darren McFadden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.31