Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.117
- 41.8%Success rate46.6%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.76CPOE+5.68
- 38.3%Third-down rate47.6%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.79Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/42 | 323 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/31 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 6 | 92 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96