2014 · WC

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

20·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.117
  • 41.8%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.068
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.76CPOE+5.68
  • 38.3%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2013 · W8DAL @ DET30–31DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–DAL
DALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:26462Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 11:22620Punt7–0
DETQ1 9:071493Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 1:57718Punt14–0
DETQ2 13:56832Punt14–0
DALQ2 9:43731Punt14–0
DETQ2 5:11311Punt14–0
DALQ2 2:15484Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 1:37959Field goal17–7
DALQ2 0:0300End of half17–7
DETQ3 15:0010Turnover17–7
DALQ3 14:493-4Missed field goal17–7
DETQ3 12:44750Field goal20–7
DALQ3 8:411190Touchdown20–14
DETQ3 2:5438Punt20–14
DALQ3 1:16621Field goal20–17
DETQ4 12:16849Punt20–17
DALQ4 8:101354Touchdown20–24
DETQ4 2:3224Turnover20–24
DETQ4 2:00829Turnover20–24
DALQ4 0:5400End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4232311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell12433.60
Reggie Bush8374.61
Matthew Stafford199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate69891
Calvin Johnson58850
Joique Bell44420
Theo Riddick47390
Corey Fuller23260
Eric Ebron33210
Brandon Pettigrew12110
Reggie Bush35100
Jeremy Ross0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo19/3129320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray19753.91
Tony Romo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams36922
Jason Witten57630
Cole Beasley48630
Dez Bryant33480
DeMarco Murray34220
Dwayne Harris1150
Gavin Escobar0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96