Closing spread
IND -2
Total
51
Model margin
+2.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.005
- 42.2%Success rate45.6%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.069
- 6.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- 37.7%Third-down rate41.4%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.49Points / drive1.62
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 14:38 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 13:13 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 11:41 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q1 10:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–6 |
| IND | Q1 8:31 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| DEN | Q1 7:21 | 13 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| IND | Q2 14:56 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| DEN | Q2 11:52 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–9 |
| IND | Q2 9:49 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| DEN | Q2 4:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| IND | Q2 4:00 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| DEN | Q2 2:48 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–19 |
| IND | Q2 1:32 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–19 |
| DEN | Q2 0:43 | 5 | 33 | Missed field goal | 7–19 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 7–22 |
| DEN | Q3 10:14 | 14 | 60 | Field goal | 10–22 |
| IND | Q3 3:27 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–29 |
| DEN | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–29 |
| IND | Q4 13:26 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 10–29 |
| DEN | Q4 10:44 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 10–29 |
| IND | Q4 7:56 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–29 |
| DEN | Q4 3:29 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 10–29 |
| IND | Q4 2:43 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 10–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 16/32 | 151 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 4 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Chris Cole | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/30 | 191 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 31 | 141 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin McDougal | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 15 | 128 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14