2025 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

28·29

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.083
  • 43.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.052
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.38CPOE+0.62
  • 42.4%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.74
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00846Field goal0–3
DENQ1 11:51664Touchdown7–3
INDQ1 8:24755Field goal7–6
DENQ1 4:1937Punt7–6
INDQ1 2:42962Touchdown7–13
DENQ2 14:12767Touchdown14–13
INDQ2 10:42727Turnover on downs14–13
DENQ2 7:281329Touchdown21–13
INDQ2 3:03681Touchdown21–20
DENQ2 1:3134Punt21–20
INDQ2 0:1811End of half21–20
DENQ3 15:00760Touchdown28–20
INDQ3 11:131047Field goal28–23
DENQ3 5:42625Punt28–23
INDQ3 2:43947Turnover on downs28–23
DENQ4 13:0247Turnover28–23
INDQ4 11:25681Field goal28–26
DENQ4 8:331061Missed field goal28–26
INDQ4 3:15826Field goal28–29

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix22/3020631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14765.41
Bo Nix3206.70
Troy Franklin11111.00
RJ Harvey581.60
Tyler Badie133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Franklin89891
Marvin Mims Jr.22241
Tyler Badie22190
Pat Bryant23180
RJ Harvey12160
Evan Engram12120
Adam Trautman33101
J.K. Dobbins1290
Courtland Sutton1460
Trent Sherfield1130

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3431610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor251656.60
Daniel Jones620.31
Tyler Warren100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Warren47790
Alec Pierce45680
Josh Downs68510
Jonathan Taylor22501
Michael Pittman45400
Adonai Mitchell24200
Mo Alie-Cox1180
DJ Giddens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.92