Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.083
- 43.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.052
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.38CPOE+0.62
- 42.4%Third-down rate43.0%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.10Points / drive2.74
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 22/30 | 206 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/34 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 25 | 165 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DJ Giddens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.92