2022 · Week 5

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

12·9

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.077
  • 40.3%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.42CPOE-1.65
  • 33.3%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.34
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
INDQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:37949Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:28424Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:253-4Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:1531Punt0–3
DENQ1 4:1235Punt0–3
INDQ1 2:414-1Punt0–3
DENQ1 0:12945Field goal0–6
INDQ2 10:581055Turnover0–6
DENQ2 5:3969Punt0–6
INDQ2 3:481357Field goal3–6
DENQ2 0:1200End of half3–6
DENQ3 15:00411Punt3–6
INDQ3 12:48834Field goal6–6
DENQ3 8:51759Missed field goal6–6
INDQ3 4:303-5Turnover6–6
DENQ3 3:3830Field goal6–9
INDQ3 3:1934Punt6–9
DENQ3 1:52748Turnover6–9
INDQ4 14:07611Punt6–9
DENQ4 10:4438Punt6–9
INDQ4 8:3355Punt6–9
DENQ4 6:471177Turnover6–9
INDQ4 2:13968Field goal9–9
DENQ4 0:0500End of half9–9
INDOT745Field goal12–9
DENOT670Turnover on downs12–9

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/4125102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deon Jackson13624.80
Phillip Lindsay11403.60
Nyheim Hines133.00
Matt Ryan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce89810
Michael Pittman58590
Deon Jackson44290
Parris Campbell23220
Ashton Dulin11180
Kylen Granson13160
Phillip Lindsay34140
Mo Alie-Cox1170
Nyheim Hines1250
Jelani Woods0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3927402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon15543.60
Mike Boone7385.40
Russell Wilson4225.50
Montrell Washington199.00
Devine Ozigbo122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton511740
Jerry Jeudy38530
Melvin Gordon33490
Mike Boone33470
Eric Saubert57360
KJ Hamler12100
Albert Okwuegbunam1150
Eric Tomlinson0100
Tyrie Cleveland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56