Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.077
- 40.3%Success rate39.4%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.42CPOE-1.65
- 33.3%Third-down rate29.1%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.33Points / drive1.34
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/41 | 251 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deon Jackson | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 8 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/39 | 274 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56