Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play+0.011
- 40.6%Success rate42.8%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- -5.38CPOE+0.58
- 37.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.87Points / drive2.16
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 17/38 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Gould | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 20/33 | 130 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.48