2024 · Week 15

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

13·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.045EPA / play+0.011
  • 40.6%Success rate42.8%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.075
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -5.38CPOE+0.58
  • 37.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.16
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
INDQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 10:52732Turnover7–0
INDQ1 7:061352Field goal10–0
DENQ2 14:4955Punt10–0
INDQ2 11:3933Punt10–0
DENQ2 10:001044Touchdown10–7
INDQ2 5:29412Turnover10–7
DENQ2 3:5735Punt10–7
INDQ2 3:0234Punt10–7
DENQ2 2:4038Punt10–7
INDQ2 1:38515Field goal13–7
DENQ2 0:0600End of half13–7
DENQ3 15:0049Turnover13–7
INDQ3 13:12246Turnover13–7
DENQ3 12:36418Punt13–7
INDQ3 10:2345Punt13–7
DENQ3 8:1130Turnover13–7
INDQ3 7:2214Turnover13–7
DENQ3 7:1435Field goal13–10
INDQ3 5:1845Punt13–10
DENQ3 3:47615Punt13–10
INDQ3 1:0432Punt13–10
DENQ4 14:01215Touchdown13–17
INDQ4 13:5147Opp touchdown13–24
INDQ4 12:29620Turnover on downs13–24
DENQ4 10:1036Punt13–24
INDQ4 8:39315Turnover13–24
DENQ4 7:39630Touchdown13–31
INDQ4 5:481150Turnover on downs13–31
DENQ4 1:5714End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson17/3817202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor221074.90
Anthony Richardson7466.61
Trey Sermon133.00
Tyler Goodson133.00
Adonai Mitchell1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman69580
Kylen Granson34470
Josh Downs38320
Anthony Gould11230
Trey Sermon2290
Jonathan Taylor1240
Alec Pierce0400
Will Mallory0100
Adonai Mitchell0400
Anthony Richardson11-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix20/3313033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix8232.90
Jaleel McLaughlin7213.00
Javonte Williams6152.50
Audric Estimé5132.60
Marvin Mims Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton39321
Adam Trautman22201
Marvin Mims Jr.44200
Nate Adkins11151
Jaleel McLaughlin33130
Troy Franklin2590
Javonte Williams2380
Lucas Krull2280
Audric Estimé1150
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100
Devaughn Vele0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.48