Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.059
- 45.9%Success rate41.0%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.153
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.05CPOE-0.31
- 42.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/40 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Josh Ferguson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Quan Bray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 22/33 | 266 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.96