2016 · Week 2

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

20·34

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.059
  • 45.9%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.153
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.05CPOE-0.31
  • 42.8%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
DENQ1 15:00639Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 11:41626Field goal3–0
DENQ1 8:17670Field goal3–3
INDQ1 5:3033Punt3–3
DENQ1 4:24523Punt3–3
INDQ1 1:31518Punt3–3
DENQ2 15:00753Touchdown3–10
INDQ2 11:4135Punt3–10
DENQ2 9:54849Turnover3–10
INDQ2 6:19821Field goal6–10
DENQ2 2:431160Field goal6–13
INDQ2 0:0500End of half6–13
INDQ3 15:001775Touchdown13–13
DENQ3 8:061351Field goal13–16
INDQ3 1:0967Opp touchdown13–23
INDQ4 13:5239Punt13–23
DENQ4 12:32613Punt13–23
INDQ4 9:301270Touchdown20–23
DENQ4 4:02842Field goal20–26
INDQ4 1:511-10Opp touchdown20–34
INDQ4 1:42730End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/4019711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13443.40
Andrew Luck3227.30
Robert Turbin3103.31
Josh Ferguson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton411410
Jack Doyle45370
Phillip Dorsett15300
Josh Ferguson55290
Dwayne Allen24250
Frank Gore33191
Donte Moncrief1390
Quan Bray1170
Robert Turbin0100
Chester Rogers0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian22/3326601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson20743.71
Devontae Booker9465.10
Kapri Bibbs177.00
Trevor Siemian177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas57900
Virgil Green33460
Emmanuel Sanders38390
Jordan Norwood34240
Jordan Taylor11200
C.J. Anderson35190
Cody Latimer22120
Devontae Booker1150
Kapri Bibbs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.96