Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.083
- 40.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.206
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
- -1.92CPOE-4.10
- 35.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.47Points / drive1.47
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/36 | 281 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11 | 90 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/36 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 28 | 83 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.11