2015 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

24·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.083
  • 40.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.206
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -1.92CPOE-4.10
  • 35.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.47
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:3334Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:57422Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:30760Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 6:48928Punt0–7
INDQ1 3:14843Field goal0–10
DENQ2 12:13424Turnover0–10
INDQ2 10:55863Touchdown0–17
DENQ2 7:12612Punt0–17
INDQ2 5:26921Punt0–17
DENQ2 1:4630Punt0–17
INDQ2 1:2434Opp touchdown7–17
INDQ3 15:00612Punt7–17
DENQ3 12:50360Touchdown14–17
INDQ3 11:2739Punt14–17
DENQ3 9:37979Field goal17–17
INDQ3 4:571280Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 14:051075Touchdown24–24
INDQ4 8:54633Field goal24–27
DENQ4 6:1310Turnover24–27
INDQ4 6:001337End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/3628122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson7344.90
Ronnie Hillman710.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels691021
Emmanuel Sanders611901
Demaryius Thomas57500
Bennie Fowler24220
Virgil Green11130
C.J. Anderson1240
Vernon Davis0100
Andre Caldwell0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3625220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore28833.01
Andrew Luck6345.70
Ahmad Bradshaw630.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton56820
Griff Whalen56730
Donte Moncrief34300
Coby Fleener46220
Frank Gore13190
Jack Doyle22181
Ahmad Bradshaw1281
Andre Johnson0300
Dwayne Allen0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.11