2017 · Week 15

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

25·13

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • -0.119EPA / play-0.107
  • 38.4%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.115
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -2.16CPOE-4.56
  • 38.9%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.22
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
DENQ1 15:00730Turnover0–0
INDQ1 11:34750Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 8:021163Missed field goal0–7
INDQ1 1:30727Punt0–7
DENQ2 14:0138Punt0–7
INDQ2 12:371054Field goal0–10
DENQ2 6:331285Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 1:1938Punt7–10
DENQ2 0:53624Turnover on downs7–10
INDQ3 15:001154Field goal7–13
DENQ3 9:131185Touchdown14–13
INDQ3 4:1630Punt14–13
DENQ3 3:54367Touchdown22–13
INDQ3 2:37516Punt22–13
DENQ4 14:531572Field goal25–13
INDQ4 5:13720Turnover on downs25–13
DENQ4 3:55932Turnover on downs25–13
INDQ4 0:2700End of half25–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler12/1719420
Trevor Siemian5/96701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson301585.30
Devontae Booker11393.50
Brock Osweiler4153.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas58690
Emmanuel Sanders79680
Cody Latimer34601
Jeff Heuerman11541
Devontae Booker11100
Virgil Green0100
C.J. Anderson0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/3015800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10313.10
Jacoby Brissett5183.61
Marlon Mack6142.30
Chester Rogers177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle78470
T.Y. Hilton57410
Frank Gore34370
Ross Travis22330
Kamar Aiken0100
Brandon Williams0100
Chester Rogers0300
Josh Ferguson0100
Marlon Mack0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.83