Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play-0.107
- 38.4%Success rate38.7%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- -2.16CPOE-4.56
- 38.9%Third-down rate38.0%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.24Points / drive1.22
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 12/17 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5/9 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 30 | 158 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/30 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83