2014 · DIV

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

24·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.029EPA / play+0.083
  • 45.9%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.10CPOE+3.06
  • 42.2%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.29
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:37852Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:00834Punt0–7
DENQ1 5:47420Punt0–7
INDQ1 4:19973Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 14:14716Turnover7–7
INDQ2 11:04943Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 7:2331Punt14–7
INDQ2 6:18426Missed field goal14–7
DENQ2 4:33722Punt14–7
INDQ2 2:32616Turnover14–7
DENQ2 1:28625Field goal14–10
INDQ2 0:0200End of half14–10
DENQ3 15:0035Punt14–10
INDQ3 13:371392Touchdown21–10
DENQ3 8:2135Punt21–10
INDQ3 7:0459Turnover21–10
DENQ3 5:131349Field goal21–13
INDQ4 13:5030Punt21–13
DENQ4 13:2133Punt21–13
INDQ4 12:201254Field goal24–13
DENQ4 4:06633Turnover on downs24–13
INDQ4 2:5038Punt24–13
DENQ4 1:52657End of half24–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/4326522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron23632.71
Andrew Luck22110.50
Zurlon Tipton2147.00
T.Y. Hilton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton48720
Coby Fleener36490
Dan Herron88320
Donte Moncrief28320
Dwayne Allen44301
Hakeem Nicks22241
Jack Doyle34140
Zurlon Tipton12120
Reggie Wayne0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/4621110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson18804.40
Ronnie Hillman284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas512591
Julius Thomas67530
Emmanuel Sanders715460
C.J. Anderson66290
Wes Welker12200
Virgil Green1240
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.39