Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.083
- 45.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.10CPOE+3.06
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.4%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.01Points / drive2.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/43 | 265 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 23 | 63 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 8 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/46 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 12 | 59 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 15 | 46 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.39