Closing spread
IND -6
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.009
- 40.3%Success rate44.5%
- -0.019EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.110EPA / rush+0.022
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.47CPOE-3.86
- 32.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.94
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/32 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Fred Brown | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/25 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.48