2019 · Week 8

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

13·15

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

41

Model margin

+2.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.009
  • 40.3%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.022
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.47CPOE-3.86
  • 32.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.94
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND
2014 · W1IND @ DEN24–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00624Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 11:2146Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:10531Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:411768Field goal3–0
INDQ2 12:5635Punt3–0
DENQ2 11:111373Field goal6–0
INDQ2 5:33627Punt6–0
DENQ2 2:15519Punt6–0
INDQ2 0:57443Field goal6–3
DENQ2 0:0200End of half6–3
DENQ3 15:00851Touchdown13–3
INDQ3 11:381258Field goal13–6
DENQ3 6:0537Punt13–6
INDQ3 5:10758Touchdown13–12
DENQ3 2:26930Punt13–12
INDQ4 13:503-1Punt13–12
DENQ4 11:3149Punt13–12
INDQ4 9:32525Turnover13–12
DENQ4 7:383-2Punt13–12
INDQ4 5:5167Punt13–12
DENQ4 3:37519Punt13–12
INDQ4 1:48641Field goal13–15
DENQ4 0:222-1End of half13–15

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3217400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay14594.20
Royce Freeman12403.31
Joe Flacco199.00
Diontae Spencer155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton35720
Noah Fant59260
Diontae Spencer22180
Phillip Lindsay55170
Fred Brown12160
Jeff Heuerman11110
Royce Freeman1250
DaeSean Hamilton0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2520200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack19764.01
Jacoby Brissett6345.70
Nyheim Hines4123.00
Jordan Wilkins252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle45610
T.Y. Hilton26540
Nyheim Hines33340
Eric Ebron34260
Marlon Mack11140
Chester Rogers1270
Zach Pascal1260
Parris Campbell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.48