Closing spread
GB -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.048
- 42.5%Success rate40.3%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.2%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.76Points / drive1.21
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/30 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 5 | 111 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 5 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 36/59 | 386 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 10 | 81 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 8 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 7 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Thabiti Davis | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Carter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.10