2001 · Week 17

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

34·25

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.048
  • 42.5%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 63.7%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.21
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:17462Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 11:04313Turnover7–0
GBQ1 9:35344Touchdown14–0
NYGQ1 8:33982Touchdown14–7
GBQ1 3:4336Punt14–7
NYGQ1 2:4538Punt14–7
GBQ1 1:05610Punt14–7
NYGQ2 13:09466Field goal14–10
GBQ2 11:54427Missed field goal14–10
NYGQ2 10:09833Missed field goal14–10
GBQ2 6:51515Punt14–10
NYGQ2 4:35632Punt14–10
GBQ2 1:04559Field goal17–10
GBQ3 15:00531Touchdown24–10
NYGQ3 12:07414Punt24–10
GBQ3 10:36732Field goal27–10
NYGQ3 7:52429Turnover27–10
GBQ3 5:30353Touchdown34–10
NYGQ3 4:35941Turnover34–10
GBQ3 1:233-1Punt34–10
NYGQ4 14:43657Touchdown34–17
GBQ4 12:45774Turnover34–17
NYGQ4 8:081999Touchdown34–25
GBQ4 2:5031Punt34–25
NYGQ4 1:02444End of half34–25

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/3031520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green231014.42
Brett Favre341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Bradford351111
Bill Schroeder561021
Antonio Freeman16270
Bubba Franks12230
Donald Driver23190
Ahman Green25190
Dorsey Levens12140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins36/5938612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne10818.11
Tiki Barber9657.21
Kerry Collins200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Jurevicius813820
Amani Toomer58790
Ron Dixon35610
Greg Comella79590
Tiki Barber68530
Ike Hilliard34311
Thabiti Davis22140
Dan Campbell1390
Marcellus Rivers0100
Jonathan Carter0200
Ron Dayne12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.10