2019 · Week 13

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·13

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.064
  • 43.9%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.129
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.96CPOE-1.92
  • 37.9%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.56
  • 1.1%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:37772Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 8:431171Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 3:16566Touchdown14–7
NYGQ1 1:15510Turnover14–7
GBQ2 14:38624Field goal17–7
NYGQ2 12:021861Field goal17–10
GBQ2 2:31723Punt17–10
NYGQ2 0:40318End of half17–10
GBQ3 15:00617Punt17–10
NYGQ3 11:481052Field goal17–13
GBQ3 6:371774Touchdown24–13
NYGQ4 14:22633Turnover24–13
GBQ4 11:00928Touchdown31–13
NYGQ4 7:05211Turnover31–13
GBQ4 6:15519Punt31–13
NYGQ4 4:16877Turnover on downs31–13
GBQ4 2:0013End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3324340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams10414.10
Aaron Rodgers3248.00
Aaron Jones11181.60
Tim Boyle2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard331031
Davante Adams610642
Jamaal Williams44260
Geronimo Allison23200
Jimmy Graham11160
Aaron Jones46130
Marcedes Lewis1211
Danny Vitale0100
Robert Tonyan0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/3724013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley19834.40
Daniel Jones561.20
Javorius Allen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kaden Smith68700
Darius Slayton69440
Cody Latimer13430
Sterling Shepard36401
Saquon Barkley37320
Da'Mari Scott12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.20