Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.064
- 43.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.96CPOE-1.92
- 37.9%Third-down rate37.8%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 2.12Points / drive1.56
- 1.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/33 | 243 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 103 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 10 | 64 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/37 | 240 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Smith | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Da'Mari Scott | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.20