2016 · WC

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

13·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 14°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPackers
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.127
  • 40.8%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.63CPOE+2.71
  • 36.0%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–GB
NYGQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:5338Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:18854Field goal3–0
GBQ1 5:4483Punt3–0
NYGQ1 2:09314Punt3–0
GBQ1 0:023-19Punt3–0
NYGQ2 14:12419Punt3–0
GBQ2 11:38415Punt3–0
NYGQ2 10:11670Field goal6–0
GBQ2 7:24422Punt6–0
NYGQ2 4:5630Punt6–0
GBQ2 3:45338Touchdown6–7
NYGQ2 2:2039Punt6–7
GBQ2 1:38880Touchdown6–14
GBQ3 15:0038Punt6–14
NYGQ3 12:46733Punt6–14
GBQ3 10:10731Turnover on downs6–14
NYGQ3 6:01241Touchdown13–14
GBQ3 5:16463Touchdown13–21
NYGQ3 2:5337Punt13–21
GBQ3 1:50423Field goal13–24
NYGQ3 0:2134Punt13–24
GBQ4 14:331080Touchdown13–31
NYGQ4 9:19214Turnover13–31
GBQ4 8:31955Touchdown13–38
NYGQ4 2:431263Turnover13–38
GBQ4 0:1600End of half13–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/4429911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins10303.00
Rashad Jennings5295.80
Eli Manning11111.00
Bobby Rainey100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tavarres King36731
Will Tye47660
Sterling Shepard49630
Victor Cruz34300
Odell Beckham Jr.411280
Paul Perkins35270
Bobby Rainey1180
Rashad Jennings1140

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/4036240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael10474.70
Ty Montgomery11272.50
Aaron Rodgers200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8121251
Randall Cobb571163
Jared Cook59480
Ty Montgomery34410
Jordy Nelson13130
Geronimo Allison1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.31