2016 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

16·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPackers
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.127
  • 40.8%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.63CPOE+2.71
  • 36.0%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–GB
GBQ1 15:001670Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:18518Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:211171Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 15:00734Punt0–7
GBQ2 10:4740Punt0–7
NYGQ2 9:45426Field goal3–7
GBQ2 8:21580Touchdown3–14
NYGQ2 6:0136Punt3–14
GBQ2 5:02515Turnover3–14
NYGQ2 3:04417Field goal6–14
GBQ2 1:5130Punt6–14
NYGQ2 1:272-6Turnover6–14
GBQ2 1:15415Field goal6–17
NYGQ3 15:00514Punt6–17
GBQ3 11:4135Punt6–17
NYGQ3 10:09841Field goal9–17
GBQ3 5:2632Punt9–17
NYGQ3 4:243-6Punt9–17
GBQ3 3:32865Field goal9–20
NYGQ4 13:46414Punt9–20
GBQ4 13:011273Field goal9–23
NYGQ4 6:391163Touchdown16–23
GBQ4 2:54313End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3519910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey5224.40
Orleans Darkwa7111.60
Paul Perkins294.50
Eli Manning111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.512561
Bobby Rainey66520
Will Tye23370
Jerell Adams22270
Sterling Shepard27140
Paul Perkins12130
Victor Cruz0200
Tavarres King0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/4525922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy11817.40
James Starks12332.80
Aaron Rodgers5153.00
Ty Montgomery111.00
Randall Cobb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb9111080
Davante Adams58851
Jordy Nelson413381
James Starks36190
Richard Rodgers1560
Eddie Lacy1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.95