Closing spread
GB -7
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.127
- 40.8%Success rate45.9%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.63CPOE+2.71
- 36.0%Third-down rate47.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.46Points / drive2.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/35 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 12 | 56 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/45 | 259 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 11 | 108 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 13 | 38 | 1 |
| James Starks | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.95