2022 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

27·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPackers
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.017
  • 45.0%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.68CPOE+0.52
  • 37.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.91
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–GB
GBQ1 15:00854Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 11:0536Punt0–3
GBQ1 9:283-1Punt0–3
NYGQ1 7:133-2Punt0–3
GBQ1 5:34627Touchdown0–10
NYGQ1 3:19755Field goal3–10
GBQ1 0:091375Touchdown3–17
NYGQ2 7:251281Touchdown10–17
GBQ2 1:15745Field goal10–20
NYGQ3 15:001156Field goal13–20
GBQ3 7:57841Punt13–20
NYGQ3 3:151586Touchdown20–20
GBQ4 10:0830Punt20–20
NYGQ4 9:42763Touchdown27–20
GBQ4 6:081469Turnover on downs27–20
NYGQ4 1:021-3Safety27–22
GBQ4 0:111-9End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/2721700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13705.41
Daniel Jones10373.70
Matt Breida4143.50
Gary Brightwell252.51
Daniel Bellinger122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton67790
Saquon Barkley36360
Marcus Johnson33350
Daniel Bellinger23220
Richie James22160
Matt Breida22130
David Sills22120
Chris Myarick1140

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3922220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13634.80
AJ Dillon6345.70
Christian Watson1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb713990
Allen Lazard48351
Romeo Doubs35290
Robert Tonyan44230
Josiah Deguara22190
Aaron Jones23170
Marcedes Lewis1121
Christian Watson1110
Tyler Davis12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.68