Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.017
- 45.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.68CPOE+0.52
- 37.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.02Points / drive1.91
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/27 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| David Sills | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/39 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68