2023 · Week 14

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

22·24

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.165
  • 45.1%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.205
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.07CPOE+0.19
  • 47.4%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.09
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
GBQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:11713Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:5035Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:0937Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 4:52762Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 1:01875Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 11:55748Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 7:41527Turnover on downs7–7
GBQ2 5:0623Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 4:1437Punt7–7
GBQ2 2:451038Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 0:1300End of half10–7
NYGQ3 15:0038Punt10–7
NYGQ3 12:52331Touchdown10–14
GBQ3 11:22413Punt10–14
GBQ3 9:0530Field goal13–14
NYGQ3 7:311080Touchdown13–21
GBQ3 1:281148Missed field goal13–21
NYGQ4 10:4236Punt13–21
GBQ4 8:59654Field goal16–21
NYGQ4 5:30357Turnover16–21
GBQ4 3:34936Touchdown22–21
NYGQ4 1:33757Field goal22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love25/3921811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon15533.50
Jayden Reed4389.51
Patrick Taylor4307.50
Jordan Love221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft44640
Romeo Doubs47320
Jayden Reed810270
AJ Dillon23250
Patrick Taylor22220
Samori Toure24220
Dontayvion Wicks26200
Malik Heath1261

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito17/2115810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley20864.32
Tommy DeVito10717.10
Wan'Dale Robinson23618.00
Matt Breida2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson67790
Isaiah Hodgins22221
Saquon Barkley34150
Daniel Bellinger22150
Darius Slayton22140
Jalin Hyatt23130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.64