Closing spread
GB -6
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.165
- 45.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.07CPOE+0.19
- 47.4%Third-down rate30.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 2.16Points / drive1.09
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 25/39 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 8 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 17/21 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Tommy DeVito | 10 | 71 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.64