Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.043
- 48.0%Success rate42.9%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.040
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.62CPOE-1.30
- 48.8%Third-down rate39.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.39Points / drive2.06
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/24 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 2/2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 5 | 46 | 2 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/29 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hodgins | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.15
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.66