2025 · Week 11

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

27·20

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.043
  • 48.0%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.040
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +5.62CPOE-1.30
  • 48.8%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.06
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00965Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 10:35621Punt0–7
NYGQ1 8:1048Punt0–7
GBQ1 6:151372Touchdown6–7
NYGQ2 13:5437Punt6–7
GBQ2 12:271084Touchdown13–7
NYGQ2 7:391259Touchdown13–13
GBQ2 1:1144Punt13–13
NYGQ2 0:2000End of half13–13
GBQ3 15:00731Touchdown19–13
NYGQ3 11:401656Turnover on downs19–13
GBQ3 1:5438Punt19–13
NYGQ3 0:211691Touchdown19–20
GBQ4 7:22875Touchdown27–20
NYGQ4 4:021051Turnover27–20
GBQ4 0:3631Punt27–20
NYGQ4 0:1010Turnover27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love13/2417420
Malik Willis2/2610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs7405.70
Emanuel Wilson11403.61
Bo Melton11717.00
Malik Willis11616.00
Chris Brooks188.00
Jordan Love273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs48530
Christian Watson45462
Savion Williams11330
Matthew Golden13240
Dontayvion Wicks1290
Emanuel Wilson1190
John FitzPatrick1150
Josh Whyle1121
Josh Jacobs0100
Luke Musgrave12-10

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston19/2920101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.19884.60
Devin Singletary16442.82
Jameis Winston3103.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Hodgins56570
Tyrone Tracy Jr.44510
Wan'Dale Robinson49360
Theo Johnson34360
Jalin Hyatt24180
Devin Singletary1130
Daniel Bellinger0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.15
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.66