Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
50
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.086
- 46.3%Success rate46.8%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.000
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
- +5.43CPOE+0.81
- 42.8%Third-down rate41.8%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 2.11Points / drive2.27
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/25 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
| Graham Harrell | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/30 | 249 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 13 | 77 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.29