2012 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·38

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 34°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

50

Model margin

+1.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.086
  • 46.3%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.000
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +5.43CPOE+0.81
  • 42.8%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.27
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00674Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 12:38477Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 10:4434Punt7–7
GBQ1 9:39417Missed field goal7–7
NYGQ1 7:15955Touchdown7–14
GBQ1 2:3810Turnover7–14
NYGQ1 2:2638Field goal7–17
GBQ1 0:2333Punt7–17
NYGQ2 13:35861Touchdown7–24
GBQ2 9:371163Field goal10–24
NYGQ2 3:3737Punt10–24
GBQ2 1:5039Turnover10–24
NYGQ2 1:03223Touchdown10–31
GBQ2 0:44413End of half10–31
GBQ3 15:00411Punt10–31
NYGQ3 12:40520Punt10–31
GBQ3 9:41719Punt10–31
NYGQ3 6:03760Touchdown10–38
GBQ3 3:361160Turnover on downs10–38
NYGQ4 14:161879Turnover on downs10–38
GBQ4 4:53945Punt10–38
NYGQ4 0:1300End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/2521911
Graham Harrell1/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks8354.40
Alex Green10303.00
Aaron Rodgers3227.30
Randall Cobb11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson24711
Jermichael Finley35510
Randall Cobb47390
Alex Green34200
James Starks0100
D.J. Williams0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning16/3024930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown13644.91
Ahmad Bradshaw10585.81
David Wilson6132.20
Eli Manning2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks513771
Ahmad Bradshaw23610
Martellus Bennett33440
Victor Cruz36361
Rueben Randle22261
David Wilson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.29