Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+7.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.142
- 45.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.235
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.82CPOE-3.07
- 40.8%Third-down rate32.2%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.19Points / drive1.06
- 2.1%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Tolzien | 24/34 | 339 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Scott Tolzien | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 9 | 117 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/35 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 8 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+6.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.66