2013 · Week 11

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Scott Tolzien

13·27

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+7.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapGiants
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.142
  • 45.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.087
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.235
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.82CPOE-3.07
  • 40.8%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.06
  • 2.1%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG
2011 · playoffsNYG @ GB37–20NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:2237Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:31652Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 5:3436Punt0–7
NYGQ1 3:591056Field goal0–10
GBQ2 14:03676Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 10:211366Turnover3–10
GBQ2 3:28531Punt3–10
NYGQ2 1:1837Punt3–10
GBQ2 0:43224Field goal6–10
GBQ3 15:00531Turnover6–10
NYGQ3 12:16440Field goal6–13
GBQ3 10:06845Turnover on downs6–13
NYGQ3 6:321063Touchdown6–20
GBQ3 0:25583Touchdown13–20
NYGQ4 12:433-4Punt13–26
GBQ4 10:5510Opp touchdown13–27
GBQ4 10:4939Punt13–27
NYGQ4 8:30716Punt13–27
GBQ4 4:32849Turnover13–27
NYGQ4 1:4937Punt13–27
GBQ4 0:37433End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Tolzien24/3433903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy14271.91
Scott Tolzien2115.50
James Starks2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson891170
Jarrett Boykin68910
James Jones26550
Brandon Bostick11260
Eddie Lacy22210
Andrew Quarless23180

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3527911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown18663.70
Brandon Jacobs591.81
Eli Manning133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz8111100
Hakeem Nicks45500
Rueben Randle33371
Brandon Myers34320
Andre Brown35270
Jerrel Jernigan22210
Bear Pascoe0100
Louis Murphy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+6.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.66