2001 · Week 17

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

38·6

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

36

Model margin

-3.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.195
  • 41.5%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.247
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 41.6%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.32Points / drive0.78
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CAR @ NE13–42NE
2021 · W9NE @ CAR24–6NE
2017 · W4CAR @ NE33–30CAR
2013 · W11NE @ CAR20–24CAR
2009 · W14CAR @ NE10–20NE
2005 · W2NE @ CAR17–27CAR
2003 · playoffsCAR @ NE29–32NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CAR
NEQ1 15:001162Field goal3–0
CARQ1 10:04519Opp touchdown10–0
NEQ1 7:5800Opp touchdown10–0
CARQ1 7:5810Turnover10–0
NEQ1 7:411033Turnover10–0
CARQ1 1:49761Punt10–0
NEQ2 13:50610Punt10–0
CARQ2 11:15955Field goal10–3
NEQ2 6:25613Punt10–3
CARQ2 2:55621Punt10–3
NEQ2 0:56437Turnover10–3
CARQ2 0:09219End of half10–3
CARQ3 15:0036Punt10–3
NEQ3 13:19639Punt10–3
CARQ3 10:0736Opp touchdown17–3
NEQ3 8:3000Opp touchdown17–3
CARQ3 8:30648Field goal17–6
NEQ3 4:46663Touchdown24–6
CARQ3 1:2900Turnover24–6
NEQ3 1:2910Turnover24–6
CARQ3 1:0730Turnover24–6
NEQ3 0:50924Punt24–6
CARQ4 11:2910Turnover24–6
NEQ4 11:2639Touchdown31–6
CARQ4 10:3843Turnover on downs31–6
NEQ4 9:3035Punt31–6
CARQ4 7:58833Opp touchdown38–6
NEQ4 5:4500Opp touchdown38–6
CARQ4 5:45829Turnover on downs38–6
NEQ4 3:1633Punt38–6
CARQ4 1:07322End of half38–6

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady17/2919812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith21813.91
J.R. Redmond8151.90
Troy Brown144.00
Tom Brady122.00
Kevin Faulk2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Patten46540
Troy Brown612450
J.R. Redmond34420
Jermaine Wiggins23361
Fred Coleman1340

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke15/3614403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley211688.00
Nick Goings4256.30
Chris Weinke100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith37360
Richard Huntley23230
Kris Mangum35220
Donald Hayes17140
Patrick Jeffers1530
Nick Goings1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin-3.07