Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
36
Model margin
-3.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.195
- 41.5%Success rate35.9%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.247
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- 41.6%Third-down rate30.3%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.32Points / drive0.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/29 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 6 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Fred Coleman | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 15/36 | 144 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 21 | 168 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin-3.07