Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.011
- 44.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 42.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.90
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/44 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 11/26 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 3 |
| DeShaun Foster | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Proehl | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.38