Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.011
- 44.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.116
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- 42.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.90
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.118
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:55 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:07 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:25 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:28 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:40 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:45 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:22 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:05 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 3:38 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:10 | 4 | 4 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NE | Q2 1:45 | 4 | -7 | End of half | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| NE | Q3 11:35 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CAR | Q3 6:25 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–20 |
| CAR | Q3 6:08 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–20 |
| NE | Q3 3:43 | 6 | 0 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| CAR | Q3 1:11 | 5 | 12 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 14:46 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CAR | Q4 12:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CAR | Q4 10:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 7:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CAR | Q4 6:41 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 3:57 | 8 | 44 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| CAR | Q4 2:17 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/44 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 11/26 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 3 |
| DeShaun Foster | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Proehl | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.38