2009 · Week 14

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

10·20

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -12.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.6%Success rate49.1%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback+0.223
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.033
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.62CPOE+3.43
  • 37.2%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.39Points / drive2.12
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NE are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CAR @ NE13–42NE
2021 · W9NE @ CAR24–6NE
2017 · W4CAR @ NE33–30CAR
2013 · W11NE @ CAR20–24CAR
2005 · W2NE @ CAR17–27CAR
2003 · playoffsCAR @ NE29–32NE
2001 · W17NE @ CAR38–6NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NE
CARQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:5458Turnover on downs0–0
CARQ1 11:5334Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:56639Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:28419Punt0–0
NEQ1 4:51414Turnover0–0
CARQ1 3:25248Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 2:43653Turnover7–0
CARQ2 14:51414Punt7–0
NEQ2 12:3630Punt7–0
CARQ2 11:04613Punt7–0
NEQ2 8:2336Punt7–0
CARQ2 7:34945Missed field goal7–0
NEQ2 3:29725Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 1:08557End of half7–7
NEQ3 15:00774Turnover7–7
CARQ3 11:57754Punt7–7
NEQ3 8:261396Touchdown7–14
CARQ3 1:06857Field goal10–14
NEQ4 12:14941Field goal10–17
CARQ4 7:203-10Punt10–17
NEQ4 5:5378Field goal10–20
CARQ4 3:5654Turnover on downs10–20
NEQ4 2:32415End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore15/3019710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams13826.30
Jonathan Stewart7294.10
Steve Smith273.50
Tyrell Sutton166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith26831
Muhsin Muhammad37290
Dante Rosario36260
Tyrell Sutton22210
Jeff King22160
DeAngelo Williams23150
Gary Barnidge1170
Dwayne Jarrett0100
Jonathan Stewart0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3219211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney22944.30
Kevin Faulk10585.81
Sammy Morris6355.80
Tom Brady2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker10141050
Benjamin Watson33371
Kevin Faulk33170
Laurence Maroney23170
Randy Moss14160
Sammy Morris0300
Chris Baker0100
Julian Edelman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79