Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.118
- 40.6%Success rate49.1%
- -0.092EPA / dropback+0.223
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.033
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.62CPOE+3.43
- 37.2%Third-down rate44.2%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.39Points / drive2.12
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 15/30 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 2 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/32 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 22 | 94 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 14 | 105 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79