Closing spread
NE -7
Total
38
Model margin
+3.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.043
- 39.3%Success rate40.7%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.161
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.35Points / drive1.42
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.075EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 16/33 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/48 | 354 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 26 | 83 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39