Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.154
- 43.7%Success rate48.2%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.44CPOE+10.94
- 35.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.80Points / drive2.47
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/30 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5/6 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 5 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/17 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.21