Closing spread
NE -9
Total
48
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.137
- 41.3%Success rate49.2%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.042
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.85CPOE+3.49
- 43.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.87Points / drive2.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NE are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 22/29 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 4 | 104 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 7 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/45 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| James White | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| James White | 10 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55