Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.132
- 48.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.089
- 11.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.93CPOE-7.50
- 45.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.41Points / drive1.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/18 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/33 | 172 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.02