Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.050
- 46.7%Success rate42.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.37CPOE+1.02
- 37.9%Third-down rate44.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.05Points / drive2.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/40 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/28 | 209 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.08