2013 · Week 11

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.050
  • 46.7%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.37CPOE+1.02
  • 37.9%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–3 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CAR @ NE13–42NE
2021 · W9NE @ CAR24–6NE
2017 · W4CAR @ NE33–30CAR
2009 · W14CAR @ NE10–20NE
2005 · W2NE @ CAR17–27CAR
2003 · playoffsCAR @ NE29–32NE
2001 · W17NE @ CAR38–6NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CAR
CARQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:25936Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:471080Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 2:441650Turnover0–7
CARQ2 11:031257Field goal0–10
NEQ2 5:02871Field goal3–10
CARQ2 1:0923End of half3–10
NEQ3 15:001070Touchdown10–10
CARQ3 10:311381Touchdown10–17
NEQ3 2:10980Touchdown17–17
CARQ4 12:333-5Punt17–17
NEQ4 11:01831Field goal20–17
CARQ4 6:321483Touchdown20–24
NEQ4 0:591252Turnover20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4029611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10494.90
Stevan Ridley13483.71
Shane Vereen177.00
Tom Brady133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shane Vereen811650
Kenbrell Thompkins22600
Rob Gronkowski57591
Danny Amendola67450
Aaron Dobson47380
Julian Edelman34270
Michael Hoomanawanui1120
Matthew Mulligan0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/2820930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton7628.90
DeAngelo Williams6142.30
Jonathan Stewart4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith46620
Brandon LaFell78591
Greg Olsen58521
Ted Ginn13251
DeAngelo Williams23110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.08