2001 · Week 17

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Koy Detmer

17·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

33

Model margin

+2.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.025
  • 39.2%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.43
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:00862Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 10:1032Punt0–3
TBQ1 8:18918Punt0–3
PHIQ1 3:4133Turnover0–3
TBQ1 2:53527Touchdown0–10
PHIQ2 14:55852Missed field goal0–10
TBQ2 11:20212Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 10:46949Field goal3–10
TBQ2 5:421059Field goal3–13
PHIQ2 0:1900End of half3–13
PHIQ3 15:00513Punt3–13
TBQ3 12:09417Punt3–13
PHIQ3 9:2737Punt3–13
TBQ3 7:303-5Punt3–13
PHIQ3 5:12619Punt3–13
TBQ3 1:103-16Punt3–13
PHIQ4 14:2437Missed field goal3–13
TBQ4 13:0034Punt3–13
PHIQ4 11:53450Turnover3–13
TBQ4 10:05624Punt3–13
PHIQ4 5:36871Touchdown10–13
TBQ4 2:1200Touchdown10–13
PHIQ4 2:00224Touchdown17–13
TBQ4 1:46734End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley10/1414321
Koy Detmer5/145101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter20894.50
Koy Detmer2136.50
Rod Smart263.00
Cecil Martin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dameane Douglas58772
Correll Buckhalter56500
Tony Stewart35410
Gari Scott24260
Na Brown0200
Freddie Mitchell0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King19/2814801
Brad Johnson3/44600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Stecker12352.91
Rabih Abdullah8344.30
Shaun King2-9-4.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Milton Wynn46690
Rabih Abdullah22260
Frank Murphy35250
Jameel Cook55210
Todd Yoder23200
Karl Williams24180
Aaron Stecker3380
Jacquez Green1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.04
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.79