2001 · Week 17
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
33
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.025
- 39.2%Success rate39.6%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- 31.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.34Points / drive1.43
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 10/14 | 143 | 2 | 1 |
| Koy Detmer | 5/14 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameane Douglas | 5 | 8 | 77 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Tony Stewart | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Gari Scott | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 19/28 | 148 | 0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 3/4 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Wynn | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Murphy | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.04
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.79