2023 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
44
Model margin
+2.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.008
- 46.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- +3.86CPOE+0.25
- 47.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.30Points / drive1.86
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/37 | 277 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 130 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/25 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.37