2023 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

25·11

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

44

Model margin

+2.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.008
  • 46.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +3.86CPOE+0.25
  • 47.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.86
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:12760Turnover on downs0–0
TBQ1 9:09421Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:25831Field goal3–0
TBQ1 3:053-3Punt3–0
PHIQ1 1:27522Punt3–0
TBQ2 14:421359Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 8:33889Touchdown10–3
TBQ2 3:3232Turnover10–3
PHIQ2 2:26510Turnover10–3
TBQ2 0:392-9Turnover10–3
PHIQ2 0:24416Field goal13–3
PHIQ3 15:001375Touchdown20–3
TBQ3 9:12514Punt20–3
PHIQ3 6:59646Turnover22–3
TBQ3 3:461-1Safety22–3
PHIQ3 3:40955Field goal25–3
TBQ4 13:28975Touchdown25–11
PHIQ4 9:221568End of half25–11

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts23/3727712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift161308.10
Kenny Gainwell14433.10
Jalen Hurts10282.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown9141310
Olamide Zaccheaus23581
Dallas Goedert57410
DeVonta Smith45280
D'Andre Swift1280
Jack Stoll1260
Kenny Gainwell1250

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield15/2514611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White14382.70
Baker Mayfield122.00
Sean Tucker210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans510601
Chris Godwin Jr.35320
Rachaad White33240
Cade Otton12160
Trey Palmer1180
Deven Thompkins2460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.37