2018 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.045
- 46.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.229
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.11CPOE+3.11
- 40.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.01Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 35/48 | 334 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 11 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 8 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Josh Perkins | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Shelton Gibson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/33 | 402 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 16 | 22 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Shaun Wilson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 4 | 129 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 10 | 12 | 83 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.10
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.25