2018 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

21·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.045
  • 46.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.229
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.11CPOE+3.11
  • 40.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.93
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:00175Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 14:4935Punt0–7
TBQ1 12:55522Punt0–7
PHIQ1 10:21850Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:04525Punt0–7
PHIQ1 3:53518Turnover0–7
TBQ1 0:562-6Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 0:1332Punt0–7
TBQ2 14:04727Punt0–7
PHIQ2 11:001469Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 4:51175Touchdown7–13
PHIQ2 4:3935Punt7–13
TBQ2 2:26670Touchdown7–20
PHIQ2 0:42651Missed field goal7–20
TBQ2 0:0400End of half7–20
PHIQ3 15:00529Turnover on downs7–20
TBQ3 12:36754Touchdown7–27
PHIQ3 9:1933Punt7–27
TBQ3 6:59621Punt7–27
PHIQ3 3:51984Touchdown14–27
TBQ3 0:09640Turnover14–27
PHIQ4 12:30822Turnover on downs14–27
TBQ4 8:4338Punt14–27
PHIQ4 6:36968Touchdown21–27
TBQ4 2:46826Punt21–27
PHIQ4 0:1926Turnover21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles35/4833410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Clement6305.01
Wendell Smallwood7284.00
Jay Ajayi7233.31
Nick Foles382.70
Nelson Agholor122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz1113940
Nelson Agholor812881
Josh Perkins46570
Corey Clement56550
Kamar Aiken56390
Jay Ajayi1140
Wendell Smallwood1120
Shelton Gibson0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick27/3340241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber16221.40
Jacquizz Rodgers5132.60
Shaun Wilson199.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson441291
O.J. Howard34961
Mike Evans1012831
Chris Godwin Jr.56561
Jacquizz Rodgers33230
Adam Humphries1280
Peyton Barber1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.10
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.25