2021 · Week 6

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

28·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

53

Model margin

-1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • +0.143EPA / play+0.061
  • 49.9%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.091
  • +0.024EPA / rush+0.025
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +1.50CPOE+0.39
  • 48.0%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.51Points / drive2.39
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PHI
TBQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 9:26935Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 6:01975Touchdown14–7
PHIQ1 0:3337Punt14–7
TBQ2 14:0839Punt14–7
PHIQ2 12:0735Punt14–7
TBQ2 10:3436Punt14–7
PHIQ2 9:06315Turnover14–7
TBQ2 7:321172Touchdown21–7
PHIQ2 1:5635Punt21–7
TBQ2 1:2430Turnover21–7
PHIQ2 0:5736Punt21–7
TBQ2 0:311-4End of half21–7
PHIQ3 15:0034Punt21–7
TBQ3 13:281378Touchdown28–7
PHIQ3 5:47825Touchdown28–14
TBQ3 2:1538Punt28–14
PHIQ3 0:38857Missed field goal28–14
TBQ4 12:38728Turnover on downs28–14
PHIQ4 8:59854Touchdown28–22
TBQ4 5:54954End of half28–22

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/4229721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette22813.72
Ronald Jones5204.00
Tom Brady410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown913931
O.J. Howard67491
Leonard Fournette66460
Chris Godwin Jr.55430
Mike Evans24270
Cameron Brate34260
Ronald Jones1190
Giovani Bernard2240

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts12/2611511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders9566.20
Jalen Hurts10444.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quez Watkins35440
DeVonta Smith24310
Zach Ertz46291
Miles Sanders24100
Kenny Gainwell1210
Jalen Reagor0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.25