2021 · Week 6
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
53
Model margin
-1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play+0.061
- 49.9%Success rate46.4%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.091
- +0.024EPA / rush+0.025
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.50CPOE+0.39
- 48.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.51Points / drive2.39
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/42 | 297 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Ronald Jones | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 93 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/26 | 115 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.25