2015 · Week 11
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
46
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.044
- 44.4%Success rate42.7%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.02CPOE-0.86
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.77Points / drive1.56
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/29 | 246 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 27 | 235 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 26/41 | 261 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76