2015 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

45·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

46

Model margin

+0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.044
  • 44.4%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.02CPOE-0.86
  • 41.4%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.56
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00310Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:01786Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:35847Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:39514Punt0–7
TBQ1 5:46670Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:5134Punt7–7
TBQ1 2:05559Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 14:5633Punt14–7
TBQ2 13:4530Punt14–7
PHIQ2 11:3936Punt14–7
TBQ2 10:09490Touchdown21–7
PHIQ2 8:06661Touchdown21–14
TBQ2 6:041390Touchdown28–14
PHIQ2 1:05631Turnover28–14
TBQ2 0:1600End of half28–14
TBQ3 15:0019102Touchdown35–14
PHIQ3 5:13831Punt35–14
TBQ3 2:141070Field goal38–14
PHIQ4 12:03732Turnover38–14
TBQ4 10:0531Punt38–14
PHIQ4 9:071164Field goal38–17
TBQ4 5:103-5Punt38–17
PHIQ4 4:4128Opp touchdown45–17
PHIQ4 4:16833Punt45–17
TBQ4 1:0500End of half45–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston19/2924650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin272358.70
Charles Sims10434.30
Bobby Rainey155.00
Jameis Winston400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans47631
Vincent Jackson46561
Adam Humphries45500
Cameron Brate34471
Charles Sims34261
Russell Shepard1141
Doug Martin0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez26/4126123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray13644.90
Kenjon Barner7375.30
Darren Sproles6213.50
Mark Sanchez2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek710790
Riley Cooper23420
Josh Huff11391
Darren Sproles37381
DeMarco Murray45270
Jordan Matthews44130
Zach Ertz24120
Nelson Agholor34110
Miles Austin0100
Kenjon Barner0100
Trey Burton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76