2023 · WC

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

9·32

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.008
  • 46.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +3.86CPOE+0.25
  • 47.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.86
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:001165Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 10:02519Punt0–3
TBQ1 7:07469Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 5:4737Punt0–10
TBQ1 4:22940Field goal0–13
PHIQ2 14:03645Field goal3–13
TBQ2 11:311245Field goal3–16
PHIQ2 5:35680Touchdown9–16
TBQ2 3:06623Punt9–16
PHIQ2 1:33731End of half9–16
PHIQ3 15:003-10Punt9–16
TBQ3 13:3144Punt9–16
PHIQ3 11:2376Punt9–16
TBQ3 7:13519Punt9–16
PHIQ3 3:4134Safety9–18
TBQ3 2:18262Touchdown9–25
PHIQ3 1:191061Turnover on downs9–25
TBQ4 11:571393Touchdown9–32
PHIQ4 5:42625Turnover on downs9–32
TBQ4 3:1246Turnover on downs9–32
PHIQ4 1:0928End of half9–32

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts25/3525010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift10343.40
Jalen Hurts155.00
Kenny Gainwell430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith8121480
D'Andre Swift44320
Julio Jones33220
Dallas Goedert46211
Quez Watkins34120
Kenny Gainwell22100
Olamide Zaccheaus1150

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3633730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White18724.00
Baker Mayfield2168.00
Chase Edmonds7121.70
Deven Thompkins11010.00
Trey Palmer199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton811890
David Moore23661
Trey Palmer12561
Mike Evans37480
Chris Godwin Jr.45451
Payne Durham11180
Chase Edmonds1280
Deven Thompkins1140
Rachaad White1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61