2021 · WC
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 21mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.143
- 46.4%Success rate49.9%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.197
- +0.025EPA / rush+0.024
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.39CPOE+1.50
- 45.5%Third-down rate48.0%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.39Points / drive2.51
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/43 | 258 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 12 | 92 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/37 | 271 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 10 | 117 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.58