2021 · WC

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

15·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.143
  • 46.4%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.197
  • +0.025EPA / rush+0.024
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.39CPOE+1.50
  • 45.5%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.51
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:001360Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:0035Punt0–7
TBQ1 8:0037Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:59510Punt0–7
TBQ1 4:251070Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 0:253-3Punt0–14
TBQ2 14:081053Field goal0–17
PHIQ2 9:161246Turnover on downs0–17
TBQ2 3:493-6Punt0–17
PHIQ2 2:23760Turnover0–17
TBQ2 0:4330Punt0–17
PHIQ2 0:1510End of half0–17
PHIQ3 15:00740Punt0–17
TBQ3 12:0735Punt0–17
TBQ3 10:35548Touchdown0–24
PHIQ3 7:38521Turnover0–30
TBQ3 5:25136Touchdown0–31
PHIQ3 5:1833Punt0–31
TBQ3 3:50520Punt0–31
PHIQ3 1:033-3Punt0–31
TBQ4 15:003-3Punt0–31
PHIQ4 12:48265Touchdown7–31
TBQ4 12:08529Punt7–31
PHIQ4 9:011093Touchdown15–31
TBQ4 4:45930Turnover on downs15–31
PHIQ4 1:1142End of half15–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts23/4325812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts8394.90
Boston Scott13434.01
Miles Sanders7162.30
Kenny Gainwell166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert612920
DeVonta Smith411600
Kenny Gainwell55491
Quez Watkins27350
Miles Sanders33120
Jordan Howard1170
Jalen Reagor1320
Boston Scott1110

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/3727120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn17533.11
Giovani Bernard13443.41
Scott Miller199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans9101171
Giovani Bernard57390
Rob Gronkowski56311
Tyler Johnson23300
Cameron Brate33290
Ke'Shawn Vaughn2290
Scott Miller1180
Breshad Perriman1350
O.J. Howard1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.58