2025 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.006
- 43.3%Success rate43.3%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.26CPOE-2.55
- 37.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.89
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/24 | 130 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 4 | 37 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/40 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 5 | 102 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 10 | 101 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.12