2025 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

31·25

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.006
  • 43.3%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.26CPOE-2.55
  • 37.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.89
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:00528Opp touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:5138Punt7–0
PHIQ1 11:22873Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 7:081119Field goal14–3
PHIQ2 15:0037Punt14–3
TBQ2 12:34523Punt14–3
PHIQ2 9:44667Touchdown21–3
TBQ2 6:1036Punt21–3
PHIQ2 5:001154Field goal24–3
TBQ2 0:58515Field goal24–6
PHIQ3 15:003-9Punt24–6
TBQ3 12:3247Turnover on downs24–6
PHIQ3 10:5637Punt24–12
TBQ3 10:04177Touchdown24–13
PHIQ3 9:513-7Punt24–13
TBQ3 8:1127Turnover24–13
PHIQ3 7:19625Touchdown31–13
TBQ3 3:51486Touchdown31–20
PHIQ3 2:1055Punt31–20
TBQ4 14:52721Field goal31–23
PHIQ4 12:1630Punt31–23
TBQ4 11:48931Turnover31–23
PHIQ4 7:4838Punt31–23
TBQ4 6:071248Turnover on downs31–23
PHIQ4 0:574-30Safety31–25

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2413020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts9626.90
Saquon Barkley19432.31
AJ Dillon3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert44372
Saquon Barkley44310
DeVonta Smith22290
Grant Calcaterra12160
John Metchie III22100
A.J. Brown2970
Will Shipley0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/4028921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving15634.20
Rachaad White6172.80
Baker Mayfield2136.50
Sterling Shepard166.00
Tez Johnson155.00
Emeka Egbuka100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bucky Irving551021
Emeka Egbuka4101011
Rachaad White45290
Chris Godwin Jr.310260
Sterling Shepard24140
Cade Otton3490
Tez Johnson1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.12