2024 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

16·33

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

42

Model margin

+1.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.133
  • 45.2%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.056EPA / rush+0.012
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +6.20CPOE+3.56
  • 42.4%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.46Points / drive2.71
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB
2013 · W6PHI @ TB31–20PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
TBQ1 15:001079Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:4437Punt0–7
TBQ1 7:49580Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 5:033-7Punt0–14
TBQ1 3:2548Punt0–14
TBQ1 1:06522Touchdown0–21
PHIQ2 14:0930Punt0–21
TBQ2 13:471266Field goal0–24
PHIQ2 7:181465Touchdown7–24
TBQ2 1:54413Punt7–24
PHIQ2 1:1435Punt7–24
TBQ2 0:55519Punt7–24
PHIQ2 0:0800End of half7–24
PHIQ3 15:00570Touchdown14–24
TBQ3 12:281270Touchdown16–30
PHIQ3 6:49850Turnover16–30
TBQ3 2:361047Field goal16–33
PHIQ4 12:59719Punt16–33
TBQ4 9:17417Punt16–33
PHIQ4 7:401019Turnover on downs16–33
TBQ4 4:10525End of half16–33

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/3015810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley10848.40
Jalen Hurts8202.51
Kenny Gainwell294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert78620
Saquon Barkley24320
Grant Calcaterra12260
Parris Campbell44171
Jahan Dotson24110
John Ross1260
Jack Stoll1240
Kenny Gainwell0100
Johnny Wilson0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield30/4734720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White10494.90
Bucky Irving10494.91
Baker Mayfield4102.51
Sean Tucker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans814941
Chris Godwin Jr.69690
Cade Otton69520
Sterling Shepard35510
Rachaad White23350
Trey Palmer33261
Sean Tucker11140
Bucky Irving1260
Kameron Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.48