2024 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
42
Model margin
+1.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.133
- 45.2%Success rate49.4%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.056EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- +6.20CPOE+3.56
- 42.4%Third-down rate50.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.46Points / drive2.71
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/30 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 84 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 30/47 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 14 | 94 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48