Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
33
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.023
- 39.6%Success rate41.2%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.1%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.28Points / drive1.31
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 12/18 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jason Brookins | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 15/28 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 5 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.17