2001 · WC

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

20·3

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

33

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.023
  • 39.6%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.31
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
MIAQ1 14:4939Field goal0–3
BALQ1 12:4639Punt0–3
MIAQ1 10:27619Punt0–3
BALQ1 7:251795Touchdown7–3
MIAQ2 13:3435Punt7–3
BALQ2 11:15524Punt7–3
MIAQ2 8:37616Punt7–3
BALQ2 4:34618Punt7–3
MIAQ2 1:44421Turnover7–3
BALQ2 1:09518Missed field goal7–3
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt7–3
BALQ3 13:06616Punt7–3
MIAQ3 10:10533Punt7–3
BALQ3 7:021199Touchdown14–3
MIAQ3 1:2050Turnover14–3
BALQ4 14:38520Field goal17–3
MIAQ4 11:05720Turnover17–3
BALQ4 8:341050Field goal20–3
MIAQ4 2:01619Turnover on downs20–3
BALQ4 1:122-2End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac12/1813310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen251094.41
Jason Brookins10656.50
Moe Williams6244.00
Travis Taylor11515.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo284.00
Jermaine Lewis242.00
Elvis Grbac231.50
Chris Redman2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor23491
Shannon Sharpe45230
Qadry Ismail11160
Brandon Stokley13110
Todd Heap12110
Obafemi Ayanbadejo1270
Jason Brookins1130

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler15/2812201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Fiedler3165.30
Travis Minor5142.80
Ray Lucas11010.00
Lamar Smith661.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dedric Ward510550
James McKnight47260
Jed Weaver22220
Oronde Gadsden1490
Lamar Smith1260
Travis Minor2340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.17