Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.032
- 42.4%Success rate40.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.66CPOE+1.20
- 37.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.42
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 32/46 | 308 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 12 | 13 | 107 | 1 |
| Chris Givens | 3 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 6 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9/19 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.19
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.41