2015 · Week 13

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Matt Schaub

13·15

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.032
  • 42.4%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.66CPOE+1.20
  • 37.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.42
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:0434Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:02833Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:591031Punt0–0
MIAQ1 3:00732Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:311675Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ2 6:44644Punt0–0
BALQ2 3:01411Turnover0–6
MIAQ2 1:54138Touchdown0–7
BALQ2 1:47317Opp touchdown0–15
BALQ2 1:27660Field goal3–15
MIAQ2 0:2912End of half3–15
BALQ3 15:00678Touchdown10–15
MIAQ3 11:4431Punt10–15
BALQ3 10:153-1Punt10–15
MIAQ3 7:49418Punt10–15
BALQ3 5:3537Punt10–15
MIAQ3 3:2047Punt10–15
BALQ3 0:45947Field goal13–15
MIAQ4 10:173-1Punt13–15
BALQ4 9:05823Punt13–15
MIAQ4 4:29117Turnover13–15
BALQ4 4:1734Missed field goal13–15
MIAQ4 2:42619Punt13–15
BALQ4 0:20419End of half13–15

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub32/4630812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen17633.70
Terrance West8313.90
Matt Schaub100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Javorius Allen12131071
Chris Givens38680
Kamar Aiken611480
Jeremy Butler45430
Daniel Brown11170
Nick Boyle34150
Crockett Gillmore1170
Terrance West1150

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill9/198610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller201135.70
Jay Ajayi4123.00
Ryan Tannehill11111.00
Damien Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker35631
Lamar Miller1250
Damien Williams1150
Jarvis Landry2550
Jordan Cameron1340
Dion Sims1240
Kenny Stills0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.19
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.41