2017 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

0·40

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

38

Model margin

+4.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRavens
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.052
  • 39.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.06CPOE-1.33
  • 31.0%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.79
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BAL
MIAQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:18516Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:033-3Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:09340Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 8:193-2Punt0–7
BALQ1 7:2539Punt0–7
MIAQ1 5:23618Punt0–7
BALQ1 1:07635Field goal0–10
MIAQ2 13:1634Punt0–10
BALQ2 11:50735Field goal0–13
MIAQ2 8:02852Missed field goal0–13
BALQ2 5:00854Touchdown0–20
MIAQ2 1:5635Punt0–20
BALQ2 1:0547Punt0–20
MIAQ2 0:261-12End of half0–20
BALQ3 15:00625Punt0–20
MIAQ3 12:1135Punt0–20
BALQ3 10:41620Missed field goal0–20
MIAQ3 7:3730Punt0–20
BALQ3 6:17427Punt0–20
MIAQ3 2:591049Opp touchdown0–26
MIAQ4 14:15713Turnover on downs0–26
BALQ4 11:23930Touchdown0–33
MIAQ4 6:39421Opp touchdown0–40
MIAQ4 4:28721Turnover on downs0–40
BALQ4 1:5000End of half0–40

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore25/4417602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi13231.80
Kenyan Drake6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills510650
Leonte Carroo68480
Jarvis Landry512330
Jay Ajayi44180
Anthony Fasano22110
Julius Thomas2320
Jakeem Grant0200
Kenyan Drake0100
Damien Williams12-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco10/1510110
Ryan Mallett3/72010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins181136.30
Javorius Allen17553.20
Joe Flacco199.00
Ryan Mallett4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin35531
Alex Collins22300
Nick Boyle44290
Benjamin Watson2461
Javorius Allen1320
Patrick Ricard1110
Breshad Perriman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60