Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
38
Model margin
+4.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.052
- 39.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.06CPOE-1.33
- 31.0%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.79
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 25/44 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 12 | 33 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 10/15 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 3/7 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.60