Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.004
- 44.6%Success rate45.3%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.050EPA / rush+0.034
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.08CPOE-1.40
- 37.6%Third-down rate42.2%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 2.11Points / drive1.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 36/50 | 469 | 6 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 13 | 190 | 2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 11 | 19 | 171 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/29 | 318 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 119 | 13.2 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 7 | 108 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 11 | 104 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95