2022 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

42·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRavens
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.004
  • 44.6%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.050EPA / rush+0.034
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.08CPOE-1.40
  • 37.6%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BAL
BALQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 14:47846Turnover0–7
BALQ1 10:351977Turnover on downs0–7
MIAQ2 14:43694Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 10:54175Touchdown7–14
MIAQ2 10:4472Punt7–14
BALQ2 6:46661Touchdown7–21
MIAQ2 4:03821Turnover7–21
BALQ2 1:20775Touchdown7–28
MIAQ2 0:2913End of half7–28
MIAQ3 15:001385Touchdown14–28
BALQ3 7:5239Punt14–28
MIAQ3 6:20730Punt14–28
BALQ3 2:01387Touchdown14–35
MIAQ3 0:26775Touchdown21–35
BALQ4 12:12534Turnover on downs21–35
MIAQ4 9:11559Touchdown28–35
BALQ4 7:474-2Punt28–35
MIAQ4 6:46364Touchdown35–35
BALQ4 5:19633Field goal35–38
MIAQ4 2:18668Touchdown42–38
BALQ4 0:14424End of half42–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa36/5046962

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert11514.60
Chase Edmonds5336.60
Tua Tagovailoa111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill11131902
Jaylen Waddle11191712
Mike Gesicki44411
Raheem Mostert33280
Trent Sherfield2290
Chase Edmonds1380
Durham Smythe1150
River Cracraft1221
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/2931830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson911913.21
Justice Hill3165.30
Kenyan Drake681.30
Patrick Ricard155.00
Mike Davis540.80
Mark Andrews133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman471081
Mark Andrews9111041
Isaiah Likely45430
Devin Duvernay22420
Demarcus Robinson12121
Tylan Wallace1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95