Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
47
Model margin
+3.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.069
- 47.3%Success rate47.3%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.009
- 11.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.40CPOE+2.73
- 42.5%Third-down rate42.3%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.34Points / drive2.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/38 | 237 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mike White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/21 | 321 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 1/1 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 42 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.26