2023 · Week 17

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

19·56

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

47

Model margin

+3.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRavens
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.069
  • 47.3%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.009
  • 11.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.40CPOE+2.73
  • 42.5%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.25
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BAL
MIAQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 11:00885Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 6:39565Field goal10–7
BALQ1 3:39527Punt10–7
MIAQ1 0:17626Punt10–7
BALQ2 12:461089Touchdown10–14
MIAQ2 6:561049Field goal13–14
BALQ2 3:10175Touchdown13–21
MIAQ2 2:58331Turnover13–21
BALQ2 1:50438Touchdown13–28
MIAQ2 1:24723Punt13–28
BALQ2 0:0200End of half13–28
BALQ3 15:00318Touchdown13–35
MIAQ3 13:29415Punt13–35
BALQ3 10:34536Turnover13–35
MIAQ3 8:1910Turnover13–35
BALQ3 8:1338Punt13–35
MIAQ3 5:391573Touchdown19–35
BALQ4 13:57775Touchdown19–42
MIAQ4 9:3846Turnover on downs19–42
BALQ4 7:55629Touchdown19–49
MIAQ4 4:1110Turnover19–49
BALQ4 4:03313Touchdown19–56
MIAQ4 2:28412Turnover on downs19–56
BALQ4 0:1200End of half19–56

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/3823722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane141077.60
Jeff Wilson3217.00
Tua Tagovailoa2147.00
Chris Brooks4123.00
Tyreek Hill100.00
Mike White100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill612760
Durham Smythe33540
De'Von Achane45301
Cedrick Wilson Jr.24271
Jeff Wilson34130
Braxton Berrios22100
Julian Hill1190
Robbie Chosen0100
River Cracraft0100
Chase Claypool0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2132150
Tyler Huntley1/11910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards16684.31
Justice Hill34816.00
Lamar Jackson6355.80
Melvin Gordon6101.71
Tyler Huntley1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers331061
Justice Hill55641
Rashod Bateman46540
Isaiah Likely23422
Odell Beckham Jr.11330
Charlie Kolar11191
Nelson Agholor22180
Patrick Ricard1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.26