Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.060
- 42.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.062EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.52CPOE-0.41
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.80Points / drive1.63
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 29/40 | 226 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 11 | 14 | 87 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 6 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 36/47 | 381 | 4 | 1 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 9 | 11 | 90 | 2 |
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 3 | 59 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.72