2016 · Week 13

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

6·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRavens
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.060
  • 42.2%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.52CPOE-0.41
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.63
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. BAL are 13-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BAL
BALQ1 15:00879Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:57747Missed field goal0–7
BALQ1 6:54973Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 3:17943Turnover0–14
BALQ2 13:2510Turnover0–14
MIAQ2 13:1635Punt0–14
BALQ2 11:0719103Touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 2:10528Punt0–21
BALQ2 0:59548Field goal0–24
MIAQ3 15:00861Turnover0–24
BALQ3 10:0834Punt0–24
MIAQ3 9:28823Punt0–24
BALQ3 4:54744Punt0–24
MIAQ3 2:42626Punt0–24
BALQ3 0:06213Turnover6–24
MIAQ4 14:4718Touchdown6–24
BALQ4 14:42475Touchdown6–31
MIAQ4 12:49612Punt6–31
BALQ4 9:4637Punt6–31
MIAQ4 8:24517Turnover6–31
BALQ4 7:21441Touchdown6–38
MIAQ4 5:5537Punt6–38
BALQ4 3:37312End of half6–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill29/4022613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi12615.10
Damien Williams111.00
Kenyan Drake111.00
Ryan Tannehill100.00
Jarvis Landry1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry1114870
Dion Sims34390
DeVante Parker34341
Jay Ajayi67260
Kenny Stills25210
Damien Williams2280
Dominique Jones1170
Kenyan Drake1140
Leonte Carroo0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco36/4738141
Ryan Mallett1/3500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon6569.30
Terrance West10505.01
Chris Moore177.00
Ryan Mallett3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta911902
Mike Wallace67590
Breshad Perriman23591
Steve Smith610530
Kamar Aiken33410
Nick Boyle22240
Kenneth Dixon44210
Terrance West33181
Darren Waller12150
Chris Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.72