Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.021
- 44.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.016
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.86CPOE+1.82
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.30Points / drive1.92
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/23 | 204 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 119 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/40 | 261 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tahj Washington | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.54