2025 · Week 9

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

28·6

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Nothing filed.

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.021
  • 44.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.016
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.86CPOE+1.82
  • 41.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.92
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00426Field goal0–3
BALQ1 12:0737Punt0–3
MIAQ1 10:25214Turnover0–3
BALQ1 9:3547Touchdown7–3
MIAQ1 8:25962Missed field goal7–3
BALQ1 2:36775Touchdown14–3
MIAQ2 14:10627Punt14–3
BALQ2 10:3834Punt14–3
MIAQ2 8:4934Field goal14–6
BALQ2 7:5738Punt14–6
MIAQ2 5:371072Turnover on downs14–6
BALQ2 1:0438Punt14–6
MIAQ2 0:30520End of half14–6
BALQ3 15:001168Touchdown21–6
MIAQ3 8:093-7Punt21–6
BALQ3 6:23460Touchdown28–6
MIAQ3 4:15418Punt28–6
BALQ3 2:30438Punt28–6
MIAQ3 0:191380Turnover28–6
BALQ4 11:03418Punt28–6
MIAQ4 8:01416Turnover28–6
BALQ4 6:30847End of half28–6

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson18/2320440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry191196.30
Lamar Jackson5142.80
Keaton Mitchell4112.80
Mark Andrews242.00
Justice Hill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers55640
Isaiah Likely34600
Charlie Kolar22231
Mark Andrews23222
Justice Hill22130
Rashod Bateman24131
Keaton Mitchell1170
Derrick Henry1120
DeAndre Hopkins0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa25/4026101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane14674.80
Malik Washington3134.30
Ollie Gordon II263.00
Tua Tagovailoa111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle69820
Greg Dulcich55490
Malik Washington33480
De'Von Achane610390
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine24220
Tahj Washington12110
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1170
Ollie Gordon II1130
Dee Eskridge0100
Tanner Conner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.54