Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
41
Model margin
-3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play-0.076
- 48.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.002
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.268
- 12.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.13CPOE-2.66
- 48.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.90Points / drive1.62
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/20 | 324 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6/6 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 5 | 147 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 8 | 108 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14/29 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Rosen | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.44