2019 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

59·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

41

Model margin

-3.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • +0.203EPA / play-0.076
  • 48.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback+0.002
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.268
  • 12.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +3.13CPOE-2.66
  • 48.0%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.62
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:00889Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 10:34416Turnover13–0
BALQ1 8:46147Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 8:3757Punt14–0
BALQ1 5:46390Touchdown21–0
MIAQ1 4:17528Punt21–0
BALQ1 2:12870Touchdown28–0
MIAQ2 13:49544Field goal28–3
BALQ2 10:3839Punt28–3
BALQ2 8:24310Touchdown35–3
MIAQ2 6:50517Punt35–3
BALQ2 4:19875Touchdown42–3
MIAQ2 1:42860Touchdown42–10
BALQ2 0:1300End of half42–10
MIAQ3 15:00510Punt42–10
BALQ3 13:021076Touchdown49–10
MIAQ3 7:54718Punt49–10
BALQ3 5:47963Field goal52–10
MIAQ3 0:2225Turnover52–10
BALQ4 14:54942Touchdown59–10
MIAQ4 9:243-5Punt59–10
BALQ4 7:591374End of half59–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2032450
Robert Griffin III6/65510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram141077.62
Gus Edwards17563.30
Justice Hill7273.90
Robert Griffin III492.30
Lamar Jackson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown451472
Mark Andrews881081
Willie Snead23411
Hayden Hurst33410
Nick Boyle33260
Seth Roberts11100
Miles Boykin1151
Patrick Ricard1111

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick14/2918511
Josh Rosen1/3501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake4123.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick188.00
Albert Wilson111.00
Mark Walton111.00
Kalen Ballage5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker37750
Mike Gesicki26310
Preston Williams35241
Allen Hurns12220
Kenyan Drake23150
Albert Wilson24130
Kalen Ballage11130
Jakeem Grant14-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.44