2021 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

10·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jacoby Brissett

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.046
  • 46.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.180
  • 8.4%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.31CPOE-0.02
  • 36.5%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.58
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA
2014 · W14BAL @ MIA28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
BALQ1 15:00852Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 9:48512Punt3–0
BALQ1 7:08745Missed field goal3–0
MIAQ1 2:013-1Punt3–0
BALQ1 0:593-4Punt3–0
MIAQ2 14:4934Punt3–0
BALQ2 13:1436Punt3–0
MIAQ2 11:321056Field goal3–3
BALQ2 6:18416Punt3–3
MIAQ2 3:56613Punt3–3
BALQ2 1:47418Punt3–3
MIAQ2 0:51784Field goal3–6
BALQ2 0:0300End of half3–6
MIAQ3 15:003-10Punt3–6
BALQ3 13:5546Punt3–6
MIAQ3 11:47514Punt3–6
BALQ3 9:29611Punt3–6
MIAQ3 5:3037Punt3–6
BALQ3 3:5245Punt3–6
MIAQ3 1:391063Field goal3–9
BALQ4 12:3447Opp touchdown3–15
BALQ4 11:23411Punt3–15
MIAQ4 10:42434Punt3–15
BALQ4 7:401164Touchdown10–15
MIAQ4 4:12675Touchdown10–22
BALQ4 2:19868Turnover10–22
MIAQ4 0:4300End of half10–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson26/4323811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson9394.30
Devonta Freeman10353.50
Devin Duvernay11919.00
Le'Veon Bell310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman68800
Mark Andrews68631
Marquise Brown613370
Devin Duvernay44280
Devonta Freeman34230
Sammy Watkins1370
Josh Oliver0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa8/1315800
Jacoby Brissett11/2315600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin14312.20
Albert Wilson2199.50
Salvon Ahmed263.00
Jacoby Brissett144.00
Tua Tagovailoa300.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Wilson45870
Isaiah Ford44840
Jaylen Waddle46610
Adam Shaheen34340
Durham Smythe11230
Myles Gaskin12140
Salvon Ahmed1190
Patrick Laird1120
Mack Hollins0100
Mike Gesicki0700
Preston Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57