Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.046
- 46.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.180
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.31CPOE-0.02
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.1%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 26/43 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 13 | 37 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8/13 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 11/23 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 4 | 4 | 84 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.57