Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:26 | 8 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:07 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:44 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 12:45 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:45 | 5 | 24 | Missed field goal | 3–9 |
| LV | Q2 3:05 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:22 | 3 | 31 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–16 |
| LV | Q3 11:36 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 10–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:47 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 10–16 |
| LV | Q3 6:07 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 10–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:39 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| LV | Q3 1:30 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:57 | 11 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 10:18 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:53 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| LV | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 24–38 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:27 | 8 | 73 | End of half | 24–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 26/40 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 8 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 7 | 52 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.