2001 · WC
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
33
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.036
- 39.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.151
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 35.3%Third-down rate31.5%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.34
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 22/36 | 202 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 12 | 37 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/25 | 194 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.46