Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
32
Model margin
+4.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.060
- 39.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- 36.2%Third-down rate45.8%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 18/37 | 153 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 12/22 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 24 | 63 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.79