2001 · DIV · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

10·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 21°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

32

Model margin

+4.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.060
  • 39.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.58
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:23640Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:073-1Punt0–3
PITQ1 7:02746Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 3:4936Punt0–10
PITQ1 2:082-1Turnover0–10
BALQ1 1:2021Turnover0–10
PITQ1 0:38840Missed field goal0–10
BALQ2 10:4133Punt0–10
PITQ2 9:10638Touchdown0–17
BALQ2 5:4325Turnover0–17
PITQ2 5:1936Field goal0–20
BALQ2 3:461057Field goal3–20
PITQ2 0:5124End of half3–20
PITQ3 15:00832Punt3–20
BALQ3 10:0536Punt3–20
PITQ3 8:534-6Opp touchdown10–20
BALQ3 7:1800Opp touchdown10–20
PITQ3 7:1832Punt10–20
BALQ3 5:3130Punt10–20
PITQ3 5:051283Touchdown10–27
BALQ4 14:116-1Punt10–27
PITQ4 11:4039Punt10–27
BALQ4 9:1837Punt10–27
PITQ4 8:273-4Punt10–27
BALQ4 6:57868Turnover10–27
PITQ4 4:18610Punt10–27
BALQ4 1:513-5Punt10–27
PITQ4 1:102-2End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac18/3715303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen4112.80
Jason Brookins461.50
Moe Williams351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe57560
Brandon Stokley14270
Travis Taylor410270
Moe Williams44240
Terry Allen33110
Qadry Ismail1780
Todd Heap0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart12/2215411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue24632.62
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala12302.50
Kordell Stewart10303.00
Troy Edwards12323.00
Hines Ward166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress58841
Hines Ward36370
Bobby Shaw11140
Amos Zereoue24130
Troy Edwards1160
Matt Cushing0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.79