Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
32.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.063
- 39.2%Success rate39.4%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.099
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.34Points / drive1.28
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/40 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 8 | 18 | 1 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 8/17 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
| Jim Miller | 3/5 | 23 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Merritt | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.80