2001 · DIV

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

33·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

32.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.2%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.099
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.28
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
PHIQ1 15:001161Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:0437Punt3–0
PHIQ1 7:27863Field goal6–0
CHIQ1 3:22926Turnover6–0
PHIQ2 12:47620Punt6–0
CHIQ2 9:2739Punt6–0
PHIQ2 7:2537Punt6–0
CHIQ2 5:44247Touchdown6–7
PHIQ2 5:291079Touchdown13–7
CHIQ2 0:141-1End of half13–7
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt13–7
PHIQ3 13:4738Opp touchdown13–14
CHIQ3 12:2500Opp touchdown13–14
PHIQ3 12:2548Punt13–14
CHIQ3 11:09314Punt13–14
PHIQ3 8:31536Touchdown20–14
CHIQ3 5:551044Field goal20–17
PHIQ4 14:161045Field goal23–17
CHIQ4 8:4800Field goal23–17
PHIQ4 8:3537Field goal26–17
CHIQ4 6:2833Punt26–17
PHIQ4 5:1737Punt26–17
CHIQ4 4:463-9Turnover26–17
PHIQ4 4:16320Touchdown33–17
CHIQ4 3:21842Turnover33–17
PHIQ4 1:354-25Safety33–19

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/4026221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley18663.70
Donovan McNabb8374.61
Correll Buckhalter351.70
Jamie Reader1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash57730
Duce Staley78541
Jeff Thomason23390
Chad Lewis34320
Todd Pinkston24190
Cecil Martin38181
Freddie Mitchell23140
Correll Buckhalter22130

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews8/176602
Jim Miller3/52301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Merritt14747.01
Anthony Thomas15362.40
Dez White11515.00
James Allen273.50
Leon Johnson372.30
Shane Matthews1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez White47300
Marty Booker24180
David Terrell23180
Anthony Thomas11110
James Allen1390
Fred Baxter1430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.80